It's undeniable that Kevin Gausman was a large contributor to the success of the San Francisco Giants in 2021. While he showed flashes in the shortened 2020 season, Gausman broke out in 2021. He ranked 8th in WAR (4.8), 6th in xFIP (3.28), and 16th in xERA (3.55) among qualified starters last year. Expected stats are used here as an indicator of future performance, and there is an argument to be made that Gausman's 2021 stats are better than deserved. His xERA was 0.74 runs above his actual ERA of 2.81 and additionally, Gausman had the 7th highest hard-hit percentage against in the league, at 34.2%.
In addition to Gausman's overperformance, his dropoff in the second half of the year was also concerning. His ERA, which sat a sparkling 1.73 through the first part of the year, shot up to 4.42 in the second half. The hard-hit percentage increased by 11.5%, and batters hit significantly more line drives against Gausman during the back segment of the season. Strikeout and walk rates remained fairly consistent across the year, so FIP did not change much. However, the number of hitters squaring Gausman up by the end of the year was concerning and potentially a reason that the Giants did not match the 5 year, $110 million contract he signed with the Blue Jays.
So how did the Giants replace Gausman's nearly 5 WAR? Well before the lockout, San Francisco President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi inked veteran Alex Cobb to a 2 year, $20 million deal. The 34-year-old has played for the Rays, Orioles, and was with the Angels last season. In albeit a limited sample size (93.1 innings), Cobb impressed with a 3.98 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, and 2.5 WAR. He set career highs in K/9, HR/9, and FIP in 2021 as well.
While there are plenty of positives, Cobb's signing doesn't come without its concerns. Cobb hasn't thrown 150 innings since 2018 and is already in his mid-30s, making durability a major concern. Additionally, Cobb put up a cumulative WAR of 0 in 2019 and 2020, raising questions about the validity of his 2021 campaign.
In conclusion, Cobb fits the Giants well. He boasts an elite ground ball rate of 53.1% for his career due to his sinker-splitter combo. Cobb joins a rotation with the likes of Logan Webb (career 56.5% GB rate) and Alex Wood (49.1%). The Giants defense, anchored by shortstop Brandon Crawford, ranked 11th in the MLB with 32 defensive runs saved. Clearly, the organization feels comfortable with their staff putting the ball on the ground and letting the infield take care of the rest.
Injuries plagued the San Francisco staff in 2021, with Gausman being the only starter to log over 31 starts. Cobb provides more questions than answers on the innings-eating front, but has significant upside if he can stay healthy and produce at a level similar to the 2021 season. Especially when considering the price points for Cobb and Gausman, Cobb's signing represents a high upside investment.
As things stand right now, the Giants enter the 2022 season with a rotation of Webb, Desclafani, Wood, Cobb, and likely Sammy Long. While Webb appears poised to be the ace of the staff and the top 4 looking very solid, the aforementioned injury concerns and lack of MLB-ready pitching in the minors is an area to address. With starters like Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodón, and Clayton Kershaw still unsigned, the Giants should look to shore up their rotation via free agency when the lockout ends.
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