With the MLB lockout in full force and with no end in sight, what else is there to do but make arbitrary lists about what will happen if or when baseball comes back? The weeks leading up to December 1st saw some of the biggest names come off the board, with names like Robbie Ray, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien inking massive deals. That being said, a number of quality players are still available for when the league and players association work out a contract. There are the big-time free agents like Story and Correa still available, but for cash-strapped or small-market clubs, these 3 guys could make a major impact at a lower price point.
Prediction: 1 year, $10 million with the Brewers
1. Nelson Cruz: DH (Tampa Bay Rays)
The ageless wonder himself, Boomstick is still producing at the age of 41. Cruz tore it up in the first half, with a WRC+ of 147 (league average is 100) and 0.930 OPS (league average of 0.728 in 2021) en route to an All-Star Selection. However, Minnesota realized that a 41-year-old didn't fit the timeline of their next 4 game playoff exit and decided to sell high, sending Cruz to the Rays. While Tampa hoped that Cruz would provide major pop in the middle of their lineup, it never worked out like that for the Boomstick. His WRC+ dropped to a below-average 93 and his OPS slipped all the way to 0.717 during his tenure with the team. While this type of decline at Cruz's age looks concerning, the peripheral numbers provide some hope. The 7-time All-Star actually saw his fly ball and hard-hit rates increase in the second half, and his barrel and average exit velocity remained similar with both the Rays and Twins. The drop-off in the second half could lower the price tag for Cruz, who signed a 1 year, $13 million dollar deal prior to the 2021 season. He's a great short-term option for a team looking to shore up their hitting, and if the new CBA gives the NL a DH, he's no longer limited to the American League. Potential fits include the Brewers or Phillies in the NL or a reunion with the Rangers or Mariners.
2. Collin McHugh: RP (Tampa Bay Rays)
This list wasn't supposed to be all Rays, but the organization excels at finding production from players largely under the radar. See Collin McHugh, a soft-throwing right-hander who excelled out of the bullpen for Tampa in 2021. He dominated to the tune of a 1.55 ERA, 2.26 xERA, and 1.8 WAR last year. On top of that, he ranked in the 96th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 99th percentile in barrel percentage, and 98th percentile in xwOBA. Even with outstanding stats and the peripherals to back it up, ESPN somehow left McHugh off its list of top 50 free agents. While only recording one save in 2021, McHugh did effectively everything else for Rays and would be a great pickup for any team looking to bolster its bullpen. In an era where openers are more common and the bullpen is asked to eat more innings than ever, McHugh's services should be in high demand. That being said, the market for middle relievers can be difficult, and McHugh should expect somewhere in the $5-10 million range annually. The Phillies would be a perfect fit, as they look to boost their 28th ranked bullpen in terms of WAR, but that would require the front office to address something that has been a huge problem the past 3 years. Other candidates include the Rays, Blue Jays, Padres, and Astros.
Prediction: 3 years, $25 million with the Padres
3. Michael Conforto: OF (Mets)
There were high expectations for the Mets right fielder coming into 2021. The 28-year-old was coming off a season where he put up a 0.927 OPS, 158 WRC+, and 2.1 WAR in just 54 games. Unfortunately, Conforto, like the entire Mets organization, underperformed in 2021. He slouched to a 0.729 OPS, 106 WRC+, and 0.8 WAR last year as Conforto never really got going after missing significant time at the start of the year. That being said, Conforto still found his way on base, recording a 12.3 BB% that placed in the 87th percentile league-wide. His second half also saw significant improvement, as his WRC+ shot up 38 points after the All-Star break, and his hard-hit and fly-ball percentages saw increases as well. While Conforto doesn't provide much in the way of defense (-4 DRS and -5.1 UZR in 2021), the appeal of a left-handed hitter with a track record of success and entering his prime should be enough to have someone take a chance on Conforto. It just feels like Conforto will end up betting on himself and taking a one-year prove-it deal in hopes of cashing in the following offseason. Given the additions of Starling Marte and Mark Canha, it seems like Conforto will be suiting up for a new team next year. Potential fits include the Brewers, Braves, Padres, and White Sox.
Prediction: 1 year, $15 million with the White Sox
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